Where do You Fit?

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FOCUS ON THE IMPORTANT THINGS!!

PERSONAL FOCUS IS IMPORTANT TO YOU

AND OTHERS !!!

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Family Survival System

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Family Survival System

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Why do you need this book?

What if there is no food to buy at the grocery store?
What if the power is out for a month?
What if the water supply is out?
What if you don’t Know what to store?
What if you don’t have a neighborhood group?
This book answers these questions and many MORE!

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Global WARMING?

 

IS GLOBAL WARMING A MYTH OR A MIS INTERPRETATION OF DATA

 

I have been hearing and seeing all the stuff about global warming. It has been stated that Global warming is caused by the greenhouse gases. I don’t think that this is a significant part at all. I have included a report from World Climate Report that takes a look at 2000 years of earth temperature. It looks to me like we are following the cycle that has been present since the creation of the earth. These folks have been around a long time and present valid scientific data that is not based upon gain of political power, or more money compared to those “agencies” that support global warming. Yes we have global warming and climatic change but there is nothing that we should do about it. It is part of the natural cycle of the earth. We just need to be prepared as individuals. Big brother is not going to fix this one.

 

 

February 11, 2008

A 2,000-Year Global Temperature Record

Filed under: Paleo/Proxy, Temperature History

Over the past decade, considerable debate existed regarding the temperature history of the Earth on the time scale of millennia. If you followed our discussion on the subject, you know that one camp would like you believe that the highly-publicized warming of the planet over the past century is absolutely unprecedented over the past few thousand years. This group seems to fixate on the “hockey stick” representation of the temperature history of the past 1,000 years, and they hold on to the stick in spite of evidence to the contrary. Many others have argued based on proxy evidence throughout the world that the past few thousand years include a very warm period 1,000 years ago and a cold period 500 years ago; in their eyes, the warming of the past century is not at all unusual. These folks even go on to suggest that the Earth today may not be yet as warm as conditions 1,000 years ago, despite the 100 ppm increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past century.

Several articles have appeared in Energy and Environment recently with results of considerable interest to us at World Climate Report. The first piece is by Dr. Craig Loehle who received his Ph.D. in mathematical ecology in 1982 from Colorado State University. He has published over one hundred papers in applied mathematics and ecology on topics that include statistical models, optimization, simulation, artificial intelligence, fractals, and wavelets. Among other accomplishments, he is the developer of “Global Optimization” which is a Mathematica application package that has been on the market since 1998. Dr. Loehle’s affiliation listed in the two articles is the National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc. In the second paper, Loehle is joined by J. Huston McCulloch of the economics department at Ohio State University. There is no evidence that their work is funded by anyone with any stake in the greenhouse – global warming debate.

In the first article, Loehle notes that many long-term reconstructions of climate are based on tree rings, but “There are reasons to believe that tree ring data may not capture long-term climate changes (100+ years) because tree size, root/shoot ratio, genetic adaptation to climate, and forest density can all shift in response to prolonged climate changes, among other reasons.” Furthermore, Loehle notes “Most seriously, typical reconstructions assume that tree ring width responds linearly to temperature, but trees can respond in an inverse parabolic manner to temperature, with ring width rising with temperature to some optimal level, and then decreasing with further temperature increases.” Other problems include tree responses to precipitation changes, variations in atmospheric pollution levels, diseases, pest outbreaks, and the obvious problem of enrichment that comes along with ever higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Trees are not simple thermometers!

Loehle gathered as many non-tree ring reconstructions as possible for places throughout the world (Figure 1). There are dozens of very interesting ways to peer into the climatic past of a location, and Loehle included borehore temperature measurements, pollen remains, Mg/Ca ratios, oxygen isotope data from deep cores or from stalagmites, diatoms deposited on lake bottoms, reconstructed sea surface temperatures, and so on. Basically, he grabbed everything available, so long as it did not rely on trees.

Figure 1. Map of study sites used in the Loehle, 2007 and Loehle and McCulloch, 2008 studies

Loehle averaged the data for the 18 sites and produced the plot below, with each point representing 30-year centered average temperature (Figure 2). Loehle notes “The data show the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) quite clearly.” The plot also shows that 20th century warming is apparently dwarfed by events in the past. If you are curious about the apparent cooling near present, Loehle explains “The series ends with a downtick because the last set of points are averages that include the cool decades of the 1960s and 1970s.” Finally, we learn “It is clear that the 1995-year reconstruction shown here does not match the famous hockey stick shape.” Believe us—we noticed that fact immediately!

Figure 2. Mean of temperature data for 18 data sets. The last point represents the period from 1966-1995. (from Loehle, 2007)

Following publication of the first article, several errors came to light regarding how temperatures were reported from the various locations. At times, they were reported relative to mean global temperature in 1950, at other times, the base year was 2000. Errors regarding smoothing came to light, other issues were raised, and Loehle and co-author J. Huston McCulloch decided to re-do all the calculations, including improvements in terms of confidence intervals.

The improved plot below shows little change from the graph above, although for data reasons, the last point now represents the 29-year average temperature centered on 1935. (Figure 3). The two statistical wizards note “The corrected data continue to show the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) quite clearly. The confidence intervals” “indicate that the MWP was significantly warmer than the bimillennial average during most of approximately 820 – 1040 AD, at the 5% level (2-tailed). Likewise, the LIA was significantly cooler than the bimillennial average during most of approximately 1440-1740 AD.”

Figure 3. Corrected reconstruction with 95% confidence intervals (from Loehle and McCulloch, 2008)

We suspect you have been living your life unaware of the articles by Loehle and McCulloch. The reason is obvious – they found evidence that temperature variations over the past 2,000 years indicate that the earth’s average temperature bounces around naturally to a larger degree than other paleo-reconstructions indicate, and further, that temperatures about 1,000 years ago were not that dissimilar to today’s temperatures. This suggests that the earth’s ecosystems are more resilient (and adaptive) than some pessimists give them credit for—not a favorite topic in the mainstream press.

References:

Loehle, C. 2007. A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-tree ring proxies. Energy and Environment, 18, 1049-1058.

Loehle, C. and J.H. McCulloch. 2008. Correction to: A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-tree ring proxies. Energy and Environment, 19, 93-100.

Some helpful information to help your family survive is available here: Family Survival Guide

 

FREE BOOKS !!!!!!!!!

Pranks 3_edited-1

http://bit.ly/1jenkFx
My books will be free on Kindle on Feb. 26th. That is those that are not tied up in a non KDP select program. Look on Amazon for the author; Charles Evans, Charles L.(Bud) Evans or Bud Evans. You might have to search all three to come up with all the books. This will probably be the last time that all my books are listed this way. Those that are not free are listed for a very low price. All prices will be increasing the 1st of March.
Enjoy,
Bud

BUD’S BIRTHDAY

Thought you might be tired of me griping about the Irrigation district so on my birthday most of my Kindle books will be free. Download them and enjoy. FAMILY SURVIVAL GUIDE AT AMAZON.

http://amzn.to/KGxlMG

old_rover_my_bestfriendDUMMIES GUIDE TO A 300,000 MILE CARsuccessthroughtimemanagement_edited-1

 

Most of these will be free on my birthday. You can find out when that is on my Facebook page. Here is a link for you that has a lot of resources. BUD’S FREE BOOKS. Please enjoy.

Bud

Visit this link to see what this is all about. BENTON CITY IRRIGATION.

CAN YOU SURVIVE?

You Will Survive!!

This blog post has a distinct purpose. That purpose is to teach you to survive in the 21st Century. It is also designed to scare you into action to ensure that your family survives. This is not a prepper course to get by a major disaster. It is a long term plan to provide you and your family with a plan to survive. It includes such overlooked actions such as how to budget. How to put your money where it will do your family the most good is one major area of this book. What is the book? The book is FAMILY SURVIVAL GUIDE: HOW TO SURVIVE, http://amzn.to/1g407lW

How would you plan to survive a major disaster? Do you a simple plan to survive for two weeks without any outside support? What if you lost your job and the unemployment system was broke, could you survive for a year? Have you planned out your retirement? Got ya, I don’t answer this one but I know where to send you to get the answers.

Retirement planning is best addressed by a Wall Street Journal Article that is available on their web site: How to plan for retirement. (Ya it’s free too.)

Will this country experience major food shortages before the current economic down turn is over? Bill Heid thinks so. He has reported it all in his book RISING PRICES EMPTY SHELVES. http://amzn.to/1d3wGQQ He states that we could have more people starving to death in this current trend than starved to death during the great depression.

You need the book, FAMILY SURVIVAL GUIDE: HOW TO SURVIVE, http://amzn.to/1eLjsVu. This book provides you with a check list of actions to help ensure your families survival. This is not just from empty grocery store shelves but also many other family and neighborhood crisis’s. It is a fact that the cost of food will go up along with many other things, at least for a time. Currently the cost of living (not that portrayed by the government but what you actually spend) is rising. For example what did you pay for hamburger two years ago? I’ll bet it was around a buck a pound or less and today you are spending three bucks a pound. That nothing compared to health care and insurance costs.

Do you have a comprehensive plan to get out of debt, develop a secure food supply and develop community and neighbor hood relationships that will allow you and your neighbors to survive in the Deadly 21st Century. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints has advised family to develop these kinds of plans for well over 50 years. It appears that their predictions are right on. If you don’t like a religious prophecy, then how about one based on demographics? In Harry S. Dent, Jr’s book THE DEMOGRAPHIC CLIFF (http://amzn.to/1g407lW) the author discusses the impact of human demographics on the economy. He discusses the economic cycles as the four season model and we are now approach or in the winter economic season.

My book is written to give you a starting place in all of these areas of your life. Another excellent book is A MAN’S RIGHT TO HAPPINESS. This book was produced by the Laisse Faire group. I currently do not have link to buy this book but the contributing web site is http://www.lfb.org.

My survival guide is available both as a Kindle book and a Print book. The Kindle version is: FAMILY SURVIVAL GUIDE: HOW TO SURVIVE and the print copy is DEADLY 21ST CENTURY: HOW TO SURVIVE. Both of these books are available from Amazon. Get them now!! Before it is too Late.

PLEASE SIGN UP FOR FREE FAMILY SURVIVAL INFORMATION ON THE FORM TO THE RIGHT.

My book is written to give you a starting place in all of these areas of your life. Another excellent book is A MAN’S RIGHT TO HAPPINESS. This book was produced by the Laisse Faire group. I currently do not have link to buy this book but the contributing web site is http://www.lfb.org.

My survival guide is available both as a Kindle book and a Print book. The Kindle version is: FAMILY SURVIVAL GUIDE: HOW TO SURVIVE and the print copy is DEADLY 21ST CENTURY: HOW TO SURVIVE. Both of these books are available from Amazon. Get them now!! Before it is too Late.

PLEASE SIGN UP FOR FREE FAMILY SURVIVAL INFORMATION ON THE FORM TO THE RIGHT.

EMERGENCY COOK STOVE

Hi,
Just added a 99 cent link to a Kindle Book. EMERGENCY COOK STOVE

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The Emergency Cook Stove shows you how to build a simple outdoor cook stove for less than 10 bucks using cement blocks. I built one and it works. The book also describes the rocket stove principle that has been around since Roman Times. These stove can burn with 90 percent efficiency and I think that if the feed was constructed correctly any kind of fuel could be used. This book will get you started down that path.
I wish I could give this away free on Kindle but due to the restrictions in the Kindle KDP system I can not retain control and still give it away through their system. FOLLOW THIS LINK   http://amzn.to/1dk4OXq.
GET THIS KINDLE BOOK. THE RESOURCES ALONE ARE WORTH THE COST.


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